Monday, June 03, 2002

Read an article by Mr.Gurcharan Das in the Sunday Times which addressed the issue of a war b/w India and Pak and it's consequences.I seemed to agre with most of the points raised which Supported my Long-held view that we may engage Pak in a low-intensity conflict and at no point dominate the war to such an extent that Pak is forced to press the Nuke button.Paksitan will continue to harp on the issue of Kashmir since no Pak President can atleast in the near future hope to stay in power(or live long !!) by compromising on it.Also,Even if a War does take place and there is no permanent solution to problems b/w the 2 countries,we should always remember that it will continue to be our neighbour....As somebody said "We may chose our friends and our enemies but neighbours are inevitable...".I feel,We are a country that is fast progressing in the new world,economically and otherwise,and we do not need any distraction to deflect our focus from our goal to become a developed country.A full text of the article which discusses the consequences of a conflict on both countries is given below :

"Peace,not War"-Gurcharan Das-TOI Sunday,June 2,2002
The Prussian Master of Strategy,Clausewitz teaches that one must always start a war that one can win.Winning in this war would mean an end to cross-border terrorism.Will we win ?? No.Examples to support my answer-America's inconclusive fight against Al-qaeda and The Taliban and Israel's Anti-Palestinian offensive.The real question in Indian minds-Are we doomed to live in perpetual conflict with our neighbour.Many beleive that even if we were to give Kashmir away to Pakistan ,permanent peace would not come to the sub-continent.Historians explain that the reasons lie in the origin of the 2 states.While saints and idealism created India,distrust and hatred created Pakistan.Hence Pakistan defines itself in relation to India and is obsessed with it,while India is more relaxed and it's neighbour is peripheral to it's national psyche.
Economists have other reasons to feel pessimistic.For a decade,India has been growing at almost twice the rate of Paksistan -6.3 % vs 3.6 %; hence,India's national income(in ppp) is now 9 times bigger;although it has only 7 times more people;and it's per capita income(in ppp) is 22 % higher.India's population growth rate is 50 % slower while it's literacy growth rate is 50 % higher.Pakistan's capital formation is 66 % lower and it spends less on health and education that it did a decade ago.Unfortunately,it excels India in it's defence expenditure as a portion of GDP.If these trends continue Paksitan's economy will be one-tenth of India's and it's military expenditure unsustainable.Then,it will collapse as the Soviet Union did for which we cannot simply wait since it will lead to chaos & possible repurcussions on India.So keep Trying to seek peace even if it means a hundred failed Agra and Lahore Summits.The alternative is much worse."




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