Game theory..Portugal Wins !!
Interesting article on "Which foot should a player use to take a penalty kick ? "
Game theory used to analyze it..by
Tim Harford in Slate,a magazine...
Game theory,for people who dont know...is used
"...to mathematically analyze situations of strategic interaction..."
i.e., a situation wherein participants have to take into account the other side's responses...
For eg : a Penalty kick..a duel b/w the brain matter of the goalie vs. that of the striker...
Just to elaborate...
"...Lets say a right-footed player always shoots to the right.
The keeper will always anticipate the shot and the striker would be better off occassionally shooting to the left-because even with a weaker shot it is best to shoot where the goalie isn't.
In contrast,if the striker chooses a side by tossing a coin,the keeper will always dive to the striker's left: since he can't guess where the ball will go,best to go where the shot will be weak if it does come.
But then the striker should start favouring his stronger side again."
Game theory...fascinating...
but a.k.a. "Reverse psychology" in psycho parlance...
Funda remains the same..
Do exactly what you are good at...
Cos,everybody thinks that in a bid to outwit him,you will do...what doesnt come naturally to you...
So...you do what he is not expecting you to do..Do what comes naturally to you...
:)
Which isnt different from what you would have done...if hadnt thot of all this...
Be natural..And...
Basically 'Forrest Gump' your way thru it..
:D
Eg :
Recently...
Last ball of the match...WI vs India...a one-dayer...
Yuvi at the crease..India need less than 4 to win...last ball of the match...
Dwayne Bravo almost starts to bowl...But stops to chat with Chris Gayle...
I was watching...and was thinking..Hope Yuvi doesnt try to be a hero..
All guts and glory...
A typically northie-punjabi i-am-a-cool-dude-just-look-at-my-biceps! trait.. :D
I was thinking...
"Please,let him remember Dravid calm demeanour and Chappell's attitude-towards-Saurav's-failures,please !!!"
:)
Northies...and hope for logic ? Impossible..why waste time on trivial pursuits ?
:)
And then i thot..
'What would i do...if i was bowling ?'
And the answer came to me...
As a bowler...Me..in Bravo's position...
If i bowl a length-ball,he hits me...it's that simple...and predictable...
If I bowl a yorker...he is expecting it...everybody bowls yorkers in the death overs...So...What else is left ?
Not offside...predictable and the lefty gets room to free his arms.....
Legside ? risky...if i miss,it's 4 byes..or wides...
So ? do..what nobody expects...
A High full-toss...the toughest ball to face...according to me...
Bcos of it's unpredictability...and ability to confuse...
As a batsman, One moment you are concentrating on looking at the ball leaving the bowler's hands...
The next..it's above your eye-level...and..it's disconcerting..unexpected...confusing...
And..Before you know it...its on to you...it didnt lose pace after hitting the ground,did it...
I have used it...and most times,it's worked...bcos it's that confusing...to the batsman..
Which is exactly how you want him to be...confused..and out of sorts...for you to be able to survive...and come out winning..
Half the game is played,in cricket..in the mind..
Putting yourself in the batsman's place and trying to think like him...and making him do the exact opposite...
The Other half...is putting your thots into action...
Sometimes it doesnt work...and goes horribly wrong...
but what is important is...you were atleast thinking !
:)
Works especially...if you arent a super-quick...or super-talented...bowler...
just like i was...ordinary...hoping to be extra-ordinary...but giving it my 110 % !
:)
No wonder Wasim Akram is an idol-figure to me...Brain...and brawn !
:)
I remember hearing him on the stump mic,say to his rookie batting partner,a no. 11.....
When they were 80 odd for 9...in australia...
"beta...Sau bhi bana lenge...toh jeet jaayenge...":)
Confidence...bordering on arrogance..
they were playing Australia...in australia....they won...
Australia had the Waughs,healy,warne...and all the big guns..
Pakistan in contrast...had a A God-level team..
No big names,tho...all bacchas...
Afridi was new...some new real-quick fast bowlers-Mohammed Zahid,Wasim Mohd....saqlain mushtaq...etc..
They did exactly what "Wasim Bhai" told them to do...had lotsa fun..on and off the field...
Won...the series,even...Australia didnt even make it to the final...WI did...
:)
Back to the match...Guess...I wasnt the only one thinking like that...
Bravo..chatted with Chris Gayle..and...Gayle told him what to do...
Bravo bowled it...Yuvi lost his stumps in an attempt to 'sweep' a full-toss...and was sprawled on the ground,having lost balance...
India lost...the match...and the series..
Having come so close in this match and lost it...the momentum and confidence was just not there...
:)
Another Eg :
Roberto Baggio...and that kick...Italy never did forgive him...he turned to...buddhism later...
An Italian..a '
kattar' christian country...and a soccer-star-turned-foe converted to buddhism...cos of the pressure...
:)
Why ? he made the mistake...that kick...the kick of his life...went too high...
Right-foot player...hit it usually into the right of the net and the goalie...with the curve...
World cup match..crucial match..a few billion plus watching..
As he took that kick..pressure..immense pressure...
My guess..
He thot too much about it...
right,predictable...left..predictably unpredictable..So...Whats remaining ?
Straight forward push...on the ground...ball rolling..centre of the net ? No...too risky...
He loses his head,if the goalie slips and is still able to hold on..cos it's in the centre...and easier to cover...
So...last remaining option...hit...hard...center of the net...and decently high...
Trouble was...he made the mistake of hitting it too hard...too high...
:)
4 years later...he took the kick again...had already announced his retirement..after the world cup...
Wished to walk away into the sunset...in glory...and all that...
This time..he didnt take a chance..he went for the right...goalie did too...but...goal...fortunately for Baggio...
:)
Baggio retired...Made a Johnie Walker "Keep walking" ad...
Explaining what he went thru b/w the 2 kicks...and how he
"kept walking and/or drinking"...
:)
Italy forgave him...which was huge !!! Even for the italian bambinas !
:)
Prediction time :
Similar situation..
World Cup 2006...winner...my prediction...
Portugal...
Why ???!! Why not,i say !
France..Zizhou and gang...
Too predictable...they cant win..if they do,it will be a 2 out of 3 finals appearance,for them...and 2 world cup championship wins...in close succession...
Probably the same reason,why brazil got kicked out...if they make it to the finals,world loses interest in watching football...dig ?
Brazil was the hot-fav, all through..Who likes watching a demolition job ? No surprises..no thrills...no un-boring,'different' stuff ??
Who likes watching predictable games ?!
Who doesnt like watching an underdog/dark-horse winning ?
Who amongst us,watched tennis when Sampras/Federer ruled the courts ? Nobody...
New rage/sensation/kid-on-the-block Nadal comes along...all guns blazing...and the world watches...
Domination of the game isnt attractive...Same with chess..and Kasparov vs. Karpov matches...
So,Brazil..and consequently..France...out...
:)
Italy...The Azzuris...Totti,Del Piero,etc...Too predictable...again...
Strong defence...weak offense...unattractive game...
Sends the wrong message out to the people..
Score a goal...pull all men back...build a wall infront of the goal..
Sit back and enjoy...on the field !
In the drawing-room,you can all go to sleep !
:-/
Also,UBS warburg,recently came up with a detailed article based on statistical reasoning saying, they'll win...
How can we let them be proved rite ?
A game cannot be predicted based on stats alone now,can it ? What will that say to the people ?
It it does...Games lose the one facet...that differentiates it from an otherwise humdrum human existence...the unpredictable nature of it...
:)
So...Italy,out...
Last...Germany...Ballack,Lehmann and co...
Home team cant win...world cup history supports this fact...
If they do,people wonder "oh...does that mean we shld bid for the next world cup's hosting rights ?
and bring in the moolah ?? and the cup ??!!"
I remember the outrage when South Korea made it to the semis a few years back...
Referee decisions,etc were questioned...All bcos Seoul was hosting it that year..
:)
And...they came so close to winning last time..in the final...2nd time lucky ?
But that was what happened to brazil the last time,rite ? Wouldnt it look controlled ? arranged ? 'match-fixed' ??
:)
So..Germany out..easily...
So..Who's left ? Portugal...Figo,Christiano Ronaldo and gang...
Why will they win ?
Unpredictable...Dark horses...No Big stars..like Beckham,Zidane,etc...
No negatives,unlike the other 3...no track record...
A new name...
Everybody spoke about the odds on England,France,Brazil,Germany...
Nobody spoke of portugal as "favourites"...
Imagine cash counters ringing in the casinos/betting houses...when portugal wins..
And the odd drunk punter..who bet on them...
:)
"It's all about the money,honey..."...yes...
:)
So...Portugal,it is !
My Conspiracy theory perspective...2 cents worth,yes...
:)
Most international matches with a large fan following...are arranged...
Irrespective of the game...
There's too much money in international sport,today...
To let it be decided by 22 guys on the field...and 50-odd support staff...
Telecast rights,marketing rights...Stadia adverts...Stadia seat occupancy figures...TRPs...
everything is..biiggggg money !
A few billion are watching...
You want a fair game in the midst of all this ??! Dream on,partner !
:)
Spectator interest..is fluid...can shift..easily..from sport...to news...to whatever is on,in between..
So..you 'fix' games..to keep us glued...
No...not the punters...
Sport associations do...I dont blame them...Commerce isnt a joke...
So..."Yeh-tera-woh-mera-settings"
:)
To keep spectator-interest growing...
Increases market-size...
Increases the booty....
Just Imagine !
Even women are watching this world cup !!
Rules ?! who wants to know the rules ?
"Ball in net...is a goal,rite ??!"
I cant say anything else...but..."yes,dear...ball in net..is...a goal.."
:D
Call center incoming traffic from europe...for BPOs..is at an all-time low...everytime there's a game ! People are plugged in !!
My local supermarket is offerring me discounts on soap...SOAP !!!
And advertises "World Cup Mania Sale" !!
:-/
Nope...doesnt mean,you stop watching games...
Just something to think about...
:)
Which is why.....
I enjoy playing a game...much more...than...watching it...
:)
PS: Reverse psychology..in my anal. of the World cup 2006 prediction,too...i'll confess..
What will happen ? Two possibilities...rite..or wrong...
If i get it rite...
I am hailed as the next big "dude" to ever walk on this planet..
Cos,i predicted something even before it happened...
And didnt even bother to watch any of the matches..
Except an inconsequential Oman vs. Saudi Arabia game...To express solidarity with my hosts...
:)
If i am wrong..
I am passed off as one more quack...like so many others..."Irrelevant...therefore,ignore..."
Either way...doesnt make an iota of a diff...to my life...
It's just a theory,anyway...
So..whats to lose ??
:D
PPS : I know for a fact..that a lotta people think like i do...
Cos all of us, we go though the same set of experiences..
hell !! even our folks did ! You think they didnt think about stuff ?
And experienced all/more of the experiences we go through ?
:)
They did ! even THEIR folks did !
Difference is...I said it..Maybe they didnt...atleast not aloud,anyway...:)